Jeep Recon Pricing Thoughts

[AMC4x4]

BEVs will be no more than 15% of the US market for at least 20 years. Right now it’s 8.9% of total auto sales and holding steady.

Yeah, that’s just incorrect. It’s not “holding steady.” Just two years ago BEV’s were 5% of the market. Not sure where you are getting your numbers.

Let’s place a little bet, shall we? We will hit 15% by the time the new old guy is out of office. You can’t stop progress. 15% of the market will be here by 2029, and my guess is we will actually hit that number by 2028.

 

[Recon]

Yeah, that’s just incorrect. It’s not “holding steady.” Just two years ago BEV’s were 5% of the market. Not sure where you are getting your numbers.

Let’s place a little bet, shall we? We will hit 15% by the time the new old guy is out of office. You can’t stop progress. 15% of the market will be here by 2029, and my guess is we will actually hit that number by 2028.

Here are the numbers I’m looking at: https://caredge.com/guides/electric-vehicle-market-share-and-sales

If the new old guy decides he doesn’t like BEV vehicles, the federal incentives will go away. If one of his rich buddies makes him decide he does like them, maybe the incentive will double.

There are so many other factors weighing on it too: the lack of electric generation capacity in the us (and competition with AI for the same) lack of facilities in inner cities. Lack of facilities in remote areas.

I’m not saying it’s not going to happen, it is… it just may hit some bumps in the road that’ll slow down adoption.

 

[AMC4x4]

Here are the numbers I’m looking at: https://caredge.com/guides/electric-vehicle-market-share-and-sales

Right - I think you misread the numbers. Quarter to quarter it was steady. Year over year, there was an increase:

• EV sales were up 15% year-over-year, totaling 365,824 sales in the third quarter
• The fourth quarter of 2024 was another record quarter for EV sales in America as more drivers give owning and leasing an electric vehicle a try

That's not "holding steady."

I think you also have to consider that many folks like myself who have yet to buy their first BEV are just waiting for the market to mature a little more, which it will. The Equinox and Blazer, as well as the Honda Prologue and upcoming Bolt revision will be bigger sellers. I live in a VERY red area, and we have three Prologues in the neighborhood as of the last quarter. That signals to me that even skeptics are willing to take a look at EV's if they are offered from "traditional" automakers. Also, you can't discount the fact that people are waiting for the NACS plugs to be implemented.

If the new old guy decides he doesn’t like BEV vehicles, the federal incentives will go away. If one of his rich buddies makes him decide he does like them, maybe the incentive will double.

My guess is the rebates are going away for a while. I actually think this might be a good thing as it will stop the whole "will this qualify or won't this qualify" game that automakers are playing, and they'll all just be on a level playing field and have to provide real value more transparently in their pricing.

There are so many other factors weighing on it too: the lack of electric generation capacity in the us (and competition with AI for the same) lack of facilities in inner cities. Lack of facilities in remote areas. I’m not saying it’s not going to happen, it is… it just may hit some bumps in the road that’ll slow down adoption.

Just my guess, but the slowdown will be temporary. The rest of the world is going EV, no question. The US can decide whether or not we want to be a third-world nation burning dirty fuel or if we want to centralize our power generation where pollution can be contained and then make all our endpoints cleaner, with the added benefit that provides of being cleaner "over time" as cleaner generation sources (even potentially nuclear) come online.